Don’t trust your gut instinct
In an age when computers can crunch numbers and do analysis on a vast scale, the deep flaws in our intuition and gut instinct are becoming more and more apparent.
Direct Instruction is a rigid, highly structured form of education. The teacher has very little control and must follow a series of scripts and formulas. When I first read about it I thought it must surely be an ineffective teaching tool.
Not so. Direct Instruction seems to have a very positive impact on student achievement in language, reading, mathematics, spelling, health and science. It also leads to better social skills and enhanced self esteem. That just doesn’t make sense to me, but then I have learned that much of what my gut instinct tells me is not to be trusted.
The educational establishment does not like the Direct Instruction method. It is “wedded to its pet theories regardless of what the evidence says,” Ian Ayres writes in his book, Super Crunchers. “We see the struggle of intuition, persona experience, and philosophical inclination waging war against the brute force of numbers.”
“Decision makers don’t choose a plan because they know it works,” Siegried Engelmann, inventor of the Direct Instruction approach states. “They choose it because it’s consistent with their vision of what they think kids should do.” Engelmann goes on to state that “Intuition is perhaps your worst enemy.”
John Henry was a great man with a hammer. He could hammer steel into the ground better than any other. But then the steam drill came along and no matter how strong John Henry was, no matter how hard he hammered down his 30 pound hammer, that steam drill was just bound to win. Paul Bunyan was a great man with an axe but ultimately the chainsaw was better.
Douglas Bowman recently left his position as top visual designer at Google. He believes Google is not very friendly to designers. Google is a company that makes decisions based on data. “Data eventually becomes a crutch for every decision, paralyzing the company and preventing it from making any daring design decisions,” Bowman writes.
“We let the math and the data govern how things look and feel,” Google’s Marissa Mayer stated in a recent television interview.
Before the Web, content and graphic design was the domain of gut instinct and the craft-based approach. Borrowing heavily from the art world, people waited for a cool vision to rise from hot inspiration.
This is the age of evidence, of data, of analysis, of continuous improvement based on constant testing. As sure as Henry and Bunyan fell before the inexorable march of technological progress, so too will the writers and graphic designers who live in the old school.
The Web is the great laboratory of human behavior. The super crunching computers are throwing bright and brilliant light on so much that was mysterious about us. We need to develop new skills around data analysis and we need to test, test, test.
Of course, there are lies, damn lies, and statistics. And then there is opinion.

David Carley says:
Added on June 1st, 2009 at 10:20 amGerry
I agree there is a place for letting “the math and the data govern how things look and feel”, but I also believe in intuition, Henry and his hammer, Bunyan and his saw, may not have been gifted enough to realise change is around the corner. But if used effectively the ‘gut’ instinct, can be incredibly empowering.
If we only allow the math and the data to take precedent, then we get Alan Turing’s analysis, because we would be suppressing what humans do, that computers could be said to think like humans.
In life we constantly use the 1/3 second analysis on people we meet, in simple terms, do we like them, dislike them? If you’re constantly wrong with your initial analysis, then you’re most likely out of tune with your self, so you should concentrate on the math & data, but for those who are pretty close to 100% correct on each analysis, well the gut will keep making decisions and therefore keeping creativity and uniqueness alive.
Gerry McGovern (blog author) says:
Added on June 1st, 2009 at 3:46 pmDavid, good points. There are areas such as relationships where intuition probably trumps data for most people. However, there are an increasing number of areas where we now have data that we never had before, and the data often exposes the gut instinct as not being quite as good as we thought it was.
Stefanie Voss says:
Added on June 1st, 2009 at 10:35 pmGreat article, as always, Gerry!
My comment:
If we didn’t have our gut feeling, how would we get this feeling that something could work, that just nobodoy ever tried??? And when we trust our gut feeling and try it out, and ONLY then, can we show that the numbers and the statistics will prove that our gut feeling was SO right…
I think the right combination of both gut feeling and statistics is the way to go, also on the web!
For German readers a great book on gut and brain decision making: http://www.amazon.de/Geheimnis-kluger-Entscheidungen-Maja-Storch/dp/3442169984/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1243895694&sr=8-1
EphraimJF says:
Added on June 16th, 2009 at 8:30 pm1) Instinct is first and foremost about survival and is based in the “reptilian” and emotion-governing parts of our brains. Many opinions about design and IA are not so much about real gut instinct but about how our past experience and mental assumptions shape our immediate intellectual decision-making reactions. I don’t think the topic of this article is really about “gut instincts.”
2) I’m interested to see a clear presentation of the data behind Direct Instruction, but would personally shy away from basing this argument on the DI teaching method. DI can support teaching certain very specific skills to specific-aged children for specific sought-after outcomes. But it has extreme limitations (as far as I can tell).
3) Massive amounts of data and the computing power required to crunch the data give us new opportunities to analyze data sets and identify meaningful patterns. However, isn’t the most reliable data for web usability gained from humans watching other humans try to complete tasks within a website or application? (Don’t ask someone what they do; watch them do it.)
4) Patterns that emerge from data crunching can be interpreted for meaning and explanations in many ways.
5) A key issue here is a person’s open-ness to insight from data vs. believing in an opinion too strongly and not seeking useful data.
My main point, I suppose, is that this is a compelling, but complex topic and clearer statements would be helpful.